Friday, November 03, 2023

Peterson: A Recounting of My Accounting of the Difficulty of Counting

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Having blogged about the discrepancy between the number of manuscripts in Myths and Mistakes and the number recently given by INTF, I asked Jacob Peterson, the author of the chapter in question, to weigh in. I’m happy to share his thoughts here. —ed.


I had several people send me the INTF blog post by Katie Leggett and Greg Paulson in the days after it was posted and now I’ve been asked to write a short addendum here about Peter’s posts (here and here). Having been out of the field essentially since my chapter in Myths and Mistakes was published, this feels a bit like I’ve been granted some lasting and undue authority as an adjudicator on the issue at hand. At best, I have some thoughts for your continued consideration.

Preliminarily, I want to reiterate an overriding theme from my chapter—as Peter did in his most recent piece—that at the level of disagreement we have between my count and INTF’s the stakes are incredibly low and inconsequential, no matter how interesting the issue might be as an intellectual exercise. As I’ll show below, we are arguing over around 100 manuscripts out of over 5000. Beyond that, I have only a couple things to contribute that I think bring my numbers and theirs much closer. And, of course, I’ll offer updated guidance at the end.

If I have an actual qualm with the blog from INTF, it is in the conclusion to use the maximal count of 5700 as the total number of manuscripts when just two sentences earlier it was stated that “you can add together all destroyed manuscripts with ones presumed missing, and subtract this number from the total number of manuscripts, which results in 5,541 manuscripts.” I spent a fair amount of space in my chapter dealing with these categories and problematising issues around lost/destroyed/missing manuscripts, especially those for which we do not have images or the images are illegible (see especially p. 58). If the question is how many manuscripts are there and not how many were there, then surely a “destroyed” manuscript ain’t there (pardon my mostly suppressed Texas grammatical heritage).

Moving forward with their 5,541 number, we also need to account for the passage of time since I wrote my chapter. I submitted the draft in December 2017 with a limited subsequent edit in April 2019 to include the famed “First Century Mark” into my various charts, especially since I had a chart on the preservation of Mark in the first four centuries. In the nearly 5 years since that edit, the last issued numbers in the Liste have changed as follows. 

Category M&M Count INTF Blog count Additions
Papyri 139 141 2
Majuscules 323 326 3
Minuscules 2940 3019 79
Lectionaries 2483 2555 72

That’s a total of 156 newly utilised numbers in the Liste, which roughly aligns with the 167 stated in the INTF blog to have been added since January 2019 (they indicate that some lectionaries were assigned to previously vacated numbers). If we subtract those 167 newly catalogued manuscripts from INTF’s 2023 number of 5541, we arrive at a count of 5,374 manuscripts. That is more than close enough to my approximation of 5300 to make me happy and justify the extrapolations I was doing.

In trying to explain the difference between my count and INTF’s, Peter points out that I got it correct for majuscules but says that “since minuscule and lectionaries turn out to have a far smaller rate of difference [from the Liste numbers due to loss], Peterson’s extrapolation undershot the total by hundreds.” I don’t contest what the Liste records as the state of things today, and certainly do not in any way malign them for an inability to perfectly reflect an ever-changing landscape of manuscripts spread around the world. Rather, as I contend in the chapter and its footnotes (especially p.68 fns. 44 and 45), minuscules and lectionaries probably do experience a rate of loss not too dissimilar to the majuscules but keeping track of them is much more difficult and the payoff is not worth the effort. 

Thus, my count relies on the Liste being, justifiably, out of sync with the real-world conditions of the much larger and harder to monitor class of minuscules and lectionaries. This is certainly a theoretical point—and a bit anecdotal from working in, visiting, and contacting dozens of monasteries—and it was made in the broader service of my point to use prudent and round numbers rather than sensational ones. 

Thus, we might say INTF and I were offering two different types of counts. My extrapolation was an approximation based on a readily ascertainable (and might I say accurate!) rate of loss within the majuscules to give a likely total of how many manuscripts there actually are, whereas INTF is offering a “state of the Liste” count that indicates how many manuscripts are currently catalogued and maybe still survive.

Whatever the case may be for this last point, I’m glad to see that my now-outdated numbers were not far off the mark. I’m similarly pleased to see that some of my comments have now been incorporated into the Liste, although doubtfully under the influence of my chapter. I have in mind here the de-listing of P99 and recognition that 0229 was not destroyed, among others. We should all be thankful for INTF’s ongoing work to maintain the Liste, not least so that I can pop in every once in a while to say a few things. 

In conclusion, with the updated catalogue and in view of my own advice about numbers, I’m happy to update my own guidance regarding how we should answer the question of how many manuscripts there are of the New Testament: 5500.

4 comments

  1. And INTF's top number for minuscules has already changed, as 3020 was added a few days ago: 1 leaf that includes John 20:9-30. It really is a moving target.

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  2. Katie Leggett11/03/2023 3:25 pm

    Hi Jacob,
    Good to read your blog post. It seems our numbers aren’t too far apart even though we have a different way of counting. I really appreciate your contribution, particularly how you highlight many of the (sometimes maddening) complexities of counting manuscripts accurately.

    There are a few points I disagree on, however. First, the 159 manuscripts tagged as destroyed or presumed missing should not be wholesale eliminated as you do to get your 5,541 count. For the 58 tagged as destroyed, there’s simply not enough evidence to warrant tossing these out completely until we’re able to verify these are truly lost. Many of the 101 presumed missing, we have simply lost track of. This doesn’t mean they don’t count—just that their current location cannot be confirmed. For others, like those in Damascus, we have images and think they still count. The NTVMR offers users the option to eliminate manuscripts tagged as “destroyed" or “presumed missing” for the sake of transparency—so users can see how many MSS have this feature. We personally don’t think there’s a valid reason to exclude the majority of these from the Liste at this time.

    Second, it’s simply not true that the minuscule and lectionary categories experience a rate of loss anywhere near that of the majuscules. The 13% rate of removal for majuscules is in no way characteristic of the bulk of Liste entries! Many of the majuscules were added by Gregory and then von Dobschütz. In these early stages of the Liste, many majuscules were simply designated a GA number as part of the initial cataloguing process. In further iterations of the Liste, Aland removed and combined many of these majuscules and took a more critical approach to editing the Liste. (During Aland’s tenure, 0209 to 0306 were added, of which only 6 have been removed/combined.) Even though I agree there are certainly more minuscules and lectionaries to be combined/removed, I am confident we won’t see anything close to a 13% removal rate of lectionaries and minuscules. (This would mean, after all, removing around 371 minuscules and 314 lectionaries!)

    Finally, I concur that using round numbers is prudent in light of the ever-changing landscape of the manuscript evidence. I personally think it’s more helpful to base these round numbers on the actual data in the Liste, with full transparency about its flaws and shortcomings, rather than arbitrarily deleting a few hundred manuscripts simply because exact numbers are impossible to obtain. While there’s no doubt the data in the Liste is imperfect, this doesn’t warrant eliminating hundreds of manuscripts from the tally. One could just as easily inflate the manuscript numbers by a few hundred, considering how many MSS have yet to be added. While it’s likely that dozens of MSS will be deleted in the coming years as we continue to prune the Liste, it’s also just as probable we will continue to add new manuscripts at a similar rate as we have been doing. Therefore, my prediction is that the number 5700 will continue to be a relatively stable guideline for years to come.

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    Replies
    1. Katie, I like what you and Greg have done to remove those mss added by Gregory, based on his travels, where he failed to include enough information so that even if the manuscript would turn up now, there was not enough recorded about it to match it with certainty. So these might as well be removed, as you have done. But for the others presumed destroyed or presumed missing, where there was a historical record about them, there is no point in deleting them as they are part of history. Nothing is gained by dropping the GA number, but by adding the additional label one can easily query how many have been destroyed or are currently missing--and this is useful info.

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  3. Thanks for doing the work that you both did to provide contributing perspectives so we have an even better idea of where the number currently stands.

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